Looking East: The Road to Recovery

by John Lee September 21 2009, 16:10
I. Introduction



The current global recession has experts around the world searching for a solution in a place never looked to before. For the first time, Asian economies are leading the way out of a global economic slump. While the United States and Europe have pioneered past recoveries from world recessions, recovery seems to have already begun in Asia with China at the forefront. Massive government stimulus and expansionary fiscal policies have spurred growth in Asia with other strong economic indicators seemingly providing a foundation to a full-fledged recovery. Despite a drop in exports, Asian economies have offset the decline in this major source of revenue by slashing interest rates, keeping savings levels high, increasing infrastructure demand and harnessing the potential for expansion in domestic consumer demand. Many Asian nations are net creditors [1], with significant current account surpluses supplied by capital inflows over recent years. Asia now has a comparatively high ability to lend and borrow, as opposed to most Western nations which are running high trade and fiscal deficits. [2] However, the long-term sustainability of this potential recovery is questionable due to the huge amount of government-backed investment and generous policy measures that cannot continue indefinitely. In order for these Asian economies, in particular China, to return to normalized growth, private investment needs to increase as well as domestic consumption. No longer can the world wait for the Western consumer to jumpstart the global economy. Increasing Asian domestic consumption is a necessary driver for getting the world out of this current recession. [More]

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